“It is not the estimate you make that matters but the error you make in even thinking you can estimate”
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Simplified Meaning:
Sometimes, trying to predict the future or make exact guesses can be a problem. Imagine you're playing a game and you try to guess how many points you'll score. It’s not your guess that's the issue, but thinking you can predict it exactly that might lead you astray. This is because many things can happen that you can't foresee. For example, if someone tries to predict the stock market, they may think they'll always know when prices go up or down. However, many unexpected things can happen, like sudden economic changes or new technologies, making their prediction wrong. Instead of relying too much on guesses, it's better to be prepared for surprises and changes. This way, you can adapt and respond flexibly to new situations rather than being disappointed when your prediction doesn’t come true.
