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"ریسک چیزی است که وقتی فکر می‌کنید همه چیز را در نظر گرفته‌اید باقی می‌ماند"

Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Translations
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Quote meaning
Let's dive into the heart of it: no matter how meticulously you plan, there's always that pesky element of uncertainty. When you believe you've considered every possible outcome, risk is that unpredictable factor that still lingers. It's the wild card that keeps life interesting—and sometimes a little nerve-wracking.

Picture this: you're an ancient explorer setting sail to find new lands, confident in your supplies and navigational skills. You've done your homework, charted the stars, and even consulted the old sea dogs. Yet, you can't account for a sudden storm or an unknown reef. That unforeseen hurdle? That's risk.

Take the 2008 financial crisis as a prime example. Banks and investors thought they'd covered their bases by spreading out investments and using sophisticated models to predict market behavior. They believed they had minimized risk. Yet, when the housing bubble burst, it revealed a gaping hole in their strategies—even the best-laid plans couldn't foresee the cascading failures that followed.

Now, think about a practical application today. Imagine you're launching a startup. You've planned out your business model, secured funding, and even conducted market research. Everything points to success. But what if a new technology disrupts your industry, or an economic downturn shrinks your customer base? These are the risks—unseen and unpredictable—that can still throw you off course.

So, how do you navigate this? Accept that you can't control everything. Stay flexible. Build resilience into your plans by considering worst-case scenarios and having contingencies in place. It's not about being pessimistic—it's about being prepared.

Imagine Sarah, an entrepreneur who opened a cozy café in her hometown. She took all the right steps: location research, a solid business plan, and a loyal customer base. But then, a pandemic hit. Her plans didn’t account for prolonged lockdowns or a sudden shift to online food delivery. Instead of giving up, Sarah pivoted. She started offering online cooking classes and home delivery. The risk was real and disruptive, but her ability to adapt kept her business afloat.

In our own lives, we should embrace this mindset. Think about planning a big event, like a wedding. You can have a meticulously organized schedule, but unexpected things can—and will—happen. Maybe the DJ gets stuck in traffic, or the weather doesn't cooperate. The key is to stay flexible and have backup options. It’s about finding peace with the unpredictability and preparing to roll with the punches.

So, next time you think you've accounted for everything, remember that risk is the sneaky variable you can't pin down. Embrace it. Plan for flexibility and resilience. And when life throws you a curveball, you’ll be ready to adapt and keep moving forward. Ultimately, that’s what keeps the journey exciting and teaches us to grow. Risk isn’t just an obstacle—it’s an opportunity in disguise.
Related tags
Expectation Management Planning Preparedness Risk Security Surprise Uncertainty Vulnerability
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