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"The inability to predict outliers implies the inability to predict the course of history"

Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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Simplified meaning
In life, unexpected events often change everything. These are called 'outliers.' Imagine planning the perfect outdoor party, but suddenly, a storm hits. Just like that storm can change your party, outliers can change history in big ways we can't foresee. For example, nobody predicted the COVID-19 pandemic, and it shifted life worldwide. Because we can't foresee these rare, game-changing events, it's tough to predict what will happen in the future. This reminds us to stay flexible and be ready for surprises; planning is important, but we must also prepare for the unexpected.
Related tags
Complex systems Future History Predictability Uncertainty Unexpected events
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